ATP tennis predict — Masamichi Imamura vs Rio Noguchi

ATP Hard Hangzhou · qualification - round of 16 09:00

Predicted probability

Masamichi Imamura

Japan

29.71%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

70.29%

Average Odds

2.75 / 1.41

Market probability

33.89% / 66.11%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1551), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1662 vs 1554) and a stronger return game (46.5% vs 35.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1551.3 Elo 1673.7

1553.9 Elo (surface) 1661.7

0 Wins 7

0 Wins (surface) 6

0 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.908 Dominance ratio 0.908

408 Rank 221

27.8 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Masamichi Imamura

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Masamichi Imamura Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

—

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.00

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.4%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.12

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Masamichi Imamura Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

—

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

51.8%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Masamichi Imamura 0 – 0 Rio Noguchi

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Rio Noguchi #221

Masamichi Imamura #408

6-1 6-4

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 25

7 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 0

8 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Masamichi Imamura vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction