ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Tiago Torres

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

62.26%

Tiago Torres

Portugal

37.74%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.52

Market probability

63.32% / 36.68%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1756 vs 1632), a higher Elo rating (1753 vs 1624) and better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1753.4 Elo 1624.2

1755.9 Elo (surface) 1631.9

78 Wins (Challenger) 14

53 Wins (surface) 9

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.881 Dominance ratio 0.969

235 Rank 359

27.7 Age 24.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Tiago Torres

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Tiago Torres

1st Serve In %

62.0%

54.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

65.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.1%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Tiago Torres

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller and Tiago Torres have never played each other.

Marvin Moeller vs Tiago Torres — Prediction