ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Thomas Faurel

Challenger Clay Augsburg challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

75.54%

Thomas Faurel

France

24.46%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1729 vs 1456), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1737 vs 1456) and fewer double faults per game (0.19 vs 0.32).

Player Comparison

1729.2 Elo 1456.2

1737.2 Elo (surface) 1456.3

71 Wins (Challenger) 23

46 Wins (surface) 20

11 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.922 Dominance ratio 0.788

274 Rank 348

27.6 Age 20.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Thomas Faurel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Thomas Faurel

1st Serve In %

62.0%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

41.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.49

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Thomas Faurel

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

69.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

32.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

56.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 0 – 0 Thomas Faurel

Clay Augsburg challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Marvin Moeller #274

Thomas Faurel #348

6-1 6-3

3 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 64

36 First Serve In 35

21 First Serve Won 19

17 Second Serve Won 11

5 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Marvin Moeller vs Thomas Faurel — Prediction