ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Niels Mcdonald

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · QF 12:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

73.58%

Niels Mcdonald

Germany

26.42%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.14

Market probability

56.32% / 43.68%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1745 vs 1577), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1753 vs 1605) and more wins on clay courts (44 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1744.8 Elo 1576.8

1753.3 Elo (surface) 1605.1

69 Wins (Challenger) 9

44 Wins (surface) 9

13 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.929 Dominance ratio 1.073

319 Rank 526

27.6 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Niels Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Niels Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

62.0%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

59.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Niels Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

63.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

49.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 0 – 0 Niels Mcdonald

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Marvin Moeller #319

Niels Mcdonald #526

6-4 6-0

3 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 54

34 First Serve In 34

25 First Serve Won 20

9 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Marvin Moeller vs Niels Mcdonald — Prediction