ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Matias Soto

Challenger Clay Tulln challenger · R16 11:30

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

61.88%

Matias Soto

Chile

38.12%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.67

Market probability

65.12% / 34.88%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1765 vs 1648), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1768 vs 1665) and a better head-to-head record against Matias Soto (1-0).

Player Comparison

1764.8 Elo 1648.0

1768.2 Elo (surface) 1665.2

74 Wins (Challenger) 76

49 Wins (surface) 63

11 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.881 Dominance ratio 1.009

278 Rank 261

27.6 Age 27.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Matias Soto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Matias Soto

1st Serve In %

62.0%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

23.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Matias Soto

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

55.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 1 – 0 Matias Soto

Clay Tulln challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Matias Soto #261

Marvin Moeller #278

6-4 3-6 6-0

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 9

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

30 First Serve Won 33

10 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Augsburg challenger · 2026-08-26

R16

Marvin Moeller #274

Matias Soto #261

6-3 7-6

9 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 5

64 Service Points 69

36 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 31

15 Second Serve Won 13

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Marvin Moeller vs Matias Soto — Prediction