ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Matej Dodig

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · QF 14:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

30.59%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

69.41%

Average Odds

2.62 / 1.45

Market probability

35.63% / 64.37%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1830 vs 1774), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1828 vs 1781) and a stronger serve (62.5% vs 49.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1774.0 Elo 1830.4

1780.9 Elo (surface) 1828.4

80 Wins (Challenger) 87

55 Wins (surface) 67

9 Last 15 form 13

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.881 Dominance ratio 0.845

239 Rank 174

27.7 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

62.0%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

42.3%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

45.5%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.3%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

6.7%

19.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

38.4%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 1 – 0 Matej Dodig

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Marvin Moeller #319

Matej Dodig #257

6-2 6-4

4 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 58

37 First Serve In 34

25 First Serve Won 26

8 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 1

4 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Marvin Moeller vs Matej Dodig — Prediction