ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Luka Mikrut

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · SF 12:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

30.63%

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

69.37%

Average Odds

2.83 / 1.40

Market probability

33.10% / 66.90%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1889 vs 1769), a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1768) and a stronger serve (66.2% vs 49.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1768.3 Elo 1814.3

1769.2 Elo (surface) 1888.6

78 Wins (Challenger) 63

53 Wins (surface) 56

10 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.881 Dominance ratio 1.032

256 Rank 214

27.7 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Luka Mikrut

1st Serve In %

62.0%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.4%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

59.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.4%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Luka Mikrut

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

28.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

46.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

40.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 0 – 1 Luka Mikrut

Clay Heilbronn challenger · 2026-06-05

QF

Luka Mikrut #195

Marvin Moeller #401

5-7 7-5 6-3

6 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

92 Service Points 95

50 First Serve In 61

35 First Serve Won 38

28 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 8

37 Winners 27

28 Unforced Errors 41

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Marvin Moeller vs Luka Mikrut — Prediction