ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

67.33%

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

32.67%

Average Odds

1.36 / 2.96

Market probability

68.52% / 31.48%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1749 vs 1536), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1747 vs 1529) and a stronger serve (60.2% vs 58.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1749.4 Elo 1536.3

1747.2 Elo (surface) 1529.3

76 Wins (Challenger) 71

51 Wins (surface) 59

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.881 Dominance ratio 0.903

256 Rank 495

27.7 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Federico Arnaboldi

1st Serve In %

62.0%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Federico Arnaboldi

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 0 – 1 Federico Arnaboldi

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Marvin Moeller #256

Federico Arnaboldi #495

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

18 First Serve Won 26

20 Second Serve Won 11

8 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Hard Quimper CH · 2026-01-27

Q2

Federico Arnaboldi #380

Marvin Moeller #447

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 77

35 First Serve In 47

27 First Serve Won 27

14 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi — Prediction