ATP tennis predict — Marvin Moeller vs Daniel Michalski

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Marvin Moeller

Germany

60.76%

Daniel Michalski

Poland

39.24%

Average Odds

1.75 / 1.97

Market probability

52.96% / 47.04%

Why This Prediction?

Marvin Moeller is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1742 vs 1541), a higher Elo rating (1742 vs 1580) and more aces per game (0.16 vs 0.08).

Player Comparison

1741.7 Elo 1579.8

1742.0 Elo (surface) 1541.5

74 Wins (Challenger) 97

49 Wins (surface) 79

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.881 Dominance ratio 1.306

259 Rank 279

27.7 Age 26.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Daniel Michalski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Daniel Michalski

1st Serve In %

62.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.1%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.2%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

22.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

37.4%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.26

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.40

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.4%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marvin Moeller Daniel Michalski

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

32.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

40.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

55.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marvin Moeller 0 – 0 Daniel Michalski

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Marvin Moeller #259

Daniel Michalski #279

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 10

13 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Marvin Moeller vs Daniel Michalski — Prediction