ATP tennis predict — Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Martin Landaluce

Spain

57.05%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

42.95%

Average Odds

1.78 / 2.02

Market probability

53.16% / 46.84%

Why This Prediction?

Martin Landaluce is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1668 vs 1619) and more aces per game (0.15 vs 0.13).

Player Comparison

1708.2 Elo 1751.4

1668.2 Elo (surface) 1618.6

24 Wins 101

17 Wins (surface) 57

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.076 Dominance ratio 1.156

64 Rank 35

20.6 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Landaluce

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Landaluce Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

56.0%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.1%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.4%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.57

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Landaluce Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

68.7%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.9%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.2%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Landaluce 0 – 0 Matteo Arnaldi

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

2. round

Martin Landaluce #64

Matteo Arnaldi #35

6-4 4-6 6-4

4 Aces 8

7 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 93

44 First Serve In 48

29 First Serve Won 35

20 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 8

9 Break Points Faced 14

22 Winners 27

48 Unforced Errors 43

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction