ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

33.32%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

66.68%

Average Odds

2.42 / 1.55

Market probability

39.04% / 60.96%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1821 vs 1635), a higher Elo rating (1848 vs 1728) and more wins on hard courts (250 vs 20).

Player Comparison

1727.8 Elo 1847.6

1634.9 Elo (surface) 1821.4

29 Wins 422

20 Wins (surface) 250

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.117 Dominance ratio 1.058

100 Rank 53

22.8 Age 28.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

57.2%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 0 – 0 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Stefanos Tsitsipas #53

Martin Damm #100

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 5

68 Service Points 62

42 First Serve In 38

24 First Serve Won 31

13 Second Serve Won 8

4 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 3

19 Winners 20

30 Unforced Errors 25

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction