ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

65.00%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

35.00%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.67

Market probability

64.49% / 35.51%

Why This Prediction?

Martin Damm is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1780 vs 1657), a higher Elo rating (1858 vs 1761) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1858.4 Elo 1761.0

1779.9 Elo (surface) 1656.8

31 Wins 57

22 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.206 Dominance ratio 1.022

106 Rank 125

23.0 Age 23.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

57.2%

49.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 0 – 1 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard Us Open · 2024-08-26

Q1

Shintaro Mochizuki #153

Martin Damm #205

6-7(7) 6-1 7-6(7)

12 Aces 11

15 Double Faults 11

133 Service Points 113

60 First Serve In 55

46 First Serve Won 41

36 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 8

10 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction