ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 09:45

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

64.36%

Pavel Kotov

Russia

35.64%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.68

Market probability

65.05% / 34.95%

Why This Prediction?

Martin Damm is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1856 vs 1760), a stronger serve (68.9% vs 61.9% of service points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1856.3 Elo 1760.0

1775.7 Elo (surface) 1789.3

32 Wins 82

23 Wins (surface) 50

7 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.206 Dominance ratio 0.878

103 Rank 182

23.0 Age 27.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Pavel Kotov

1st Serve In %

56.1%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.87

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

83.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Pavel Kotov

Break Points Saved %

65.4%

48.6%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

74.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm and Pavel Kotov have never played each other.

Martin Damm vs Pavel Kotov — Prediction