ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Chengdu · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

40.26%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

59.74%

Average Odds

3.12 / 1.36

Market probability

30.36% / 69.64%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1935 vs 1791), a higher Elo rating (2022 vs 1869) and more wins on hard courts (175 vs 23).

Player Comparison

1868.9 Elo 2022.0

1790.9 Elo (surface) 1934.6

32 Wins 263

23 Wins (surface) 175

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.206 Dominance ratio 0.990

106 Rank 46

23.0 Age 29.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

57.4%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.7%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.2%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.82

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

67.4%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 1 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Montpellier · 2026-02-02

R32

Martin Damm #160

Hubert Hurkacz #52

7-6(5) 6-4

13 Aces 14

3 Double Faults 0

71 Service Points 72

44 First Serve In 45

32 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Martin Damm vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction