ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

65.16%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

34.84%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.75

Market probability

65.95% / 34.05%

Why This Prediction?

Martin Damm is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1719 vs 1579), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1623 vs 1525) and a stronger serve (68.4% vs 62.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1718.7 Elo 1578.8

1622.6 Elo (surface) 1524.5

28 Wins 24

19 Wins (surface) 8

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.079 Dominance ratio 1.071

104 Rank 123

22.8 Age 22.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

57.2%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 0 – 1 Henrique Rocha

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Martin Damm #104

Henrique Rocha #123

6-3 7-6

13 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 4

73 Service Points 66

40 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 32

24 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Sumter CH · 2025-08-12

R32

Henrique Rocha #171

Martin Damm #435

3-6 6-3 6-4

8 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 3

93 Service Points 77

62 First Serve In 52

45 First Serve Won 41

20 Second Serve Won 14

9 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Martin Damm vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction