ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Daniil Medvedev

ATP Hard Winston Salem · 2. round 00:40

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

34.39%

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

65.61%

Average Odds

3.94 / 1.24

Market probability

23.94% / 76.06%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1914 vs 1625), a higher Elo rating (1901 vs 1714) and more wins on hard courts (365 vs 21).

Player Comparison

1714.2 Elo 1901.3

1624.7 Elo (surface) 1913.6

30 Wins 487

21 Wins (surface) 365

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.153 Dominance ratio 0.932

92 Rank 8

22.9 Age 30.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Daniil Medvedev

1st Serve In %

57.2%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

72.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

57.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Daniil Medvedev

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

46.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

77.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 0 – 0 Daniil Medvedev

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-26

2. round

Martin Damm #92

Daniil Medvedev #8

7-5 6-3

10 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 5

57 Service Points 66

25 First Serve In 36

18 First Serve Won 31

20 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 2

15 Winners 27

15 Unforced Errors 32

3.9 Average Odds 1.2

Martin Damm vs Daniil Medvedev — Prediction