ATP tennis predict — Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Martin Damm

USA

31.33%

Ben Shelton

USA

68.67%

Average Odds

3.15 / 1.35

Market probability

30.00% / 70.00%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1781 vs 1633), a higher Elo rating (1883 vs 1727) and a stronger serve (70.9% vs 67.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1727.3 Elo 1882.6

1632.8 Elo (surface) 1780.5

28 Wins 137

19 Wins (surface) 93

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 0.987

104 Rank 8

22.8 Age 23.8

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Ben Shelton

1st Serve In %

57.2%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.3%

75.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

57.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.76

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.1%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.86

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Damm Ben Shelton

Break Points Saved %

68.2%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

74.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Damm 0 – 0 Ben Shelton

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Ben Shelton #8

Martin Damm #104

6-4 4-6 6-4

6 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

93 Service Points 81

59 First Serve In 48

42 First Serve Won 38

17 Second Serve Won 20

2 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton — Prediction