ATP tennis predict — Martin Borisiouk vs Koki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 09:10

Predicted probability

Martin Borisiouk

Belarus

32.88%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

67.12%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.11

Market probability

55.97% / 44.03%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1548 vs 1428), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1554 vs 1463) and more career match wins (23 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1428.5 Elo 1547.7

1463.4 Elo (surface) 1553.9

6 Wins (Challenger) 23

6 Wins (surface) 23

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.167 Dominance ratio 1.110

1003 Rank 483

26.2 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Martin Borisiouk

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Borisiouk Koki Matsuda

1st Serve In %

53.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

54.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

28.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.71

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.1%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.7%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Martin Borisiouk Koki Matsuda

Break Points Saved %

28.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

0.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.9%

68.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

26.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Martin Borisiouk 0 – 0 Koki Matsuda

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Koki Matsuda #483

Martin Borisiouk #1003

7-5 7-6

8 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 3

82 Service Points 85

41 First Serve In 52

36 First Serve Won 43

20 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Martin Borisiouk vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction