ATP tennis predict — Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Marko Topo

Germany

53.51%

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

46.49%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.70

Market probability

65.38% / 34.62%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1523.7 Elo 1502.1

1535.5 Elo (surface) 1521.7

73 Wins (Challenger) 66

57 Wins (surface) 66

6 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 0.860

341 Rank 431

23.0 Age 24.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Valerio Aboian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marko Topo Valerio Aboian

1st Serve In %

58.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.36

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marko Topo Valerio Aboian

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marko Topo 1 – 0 Valerio Aboian

Clay Plovdiv 3 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Valerio Aboian #431

Marko Topo #341

6-1 3-0

0 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 0

32 Service Points 23

19 First Serve In 13

10 First Serve Won 12

3 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Marko Topo #348

Valerio Aboian #427

6-3 7-6

2 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

82 Service Points 71

46 First Serve In 45

37 First Serve Won 26

18 Second Serve Won 19

7 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Marko Topo vs Valerio Aboian — Prediction