ATP tennis predict — Marko Topo vs Leonardo Rossi

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Marko Topo

Germany

70.17%

Leonardo Rossi

Italy

29.83%

Average Odds

1.21 / 3.95

Market probability

76.55% / 23.45%

Why This Prediction?

Marko Topo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1544 vs 1451), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1542 vs 1477) and a stronger serve (63.0% vs 55.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1543.6 Elo 1450.7

1542.5 Elo (surface) 1476.8

69 Wins (Challenger) 5

53 Wins (surface) 2

4 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.936 Dominance ratio 0.796

351 Rank 609

22.9 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Leonardo Rossi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marko Topo Leonardo Rossi

1st Serve In %

58.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.36

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.9%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.9%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marko Topo Leonardo Rossi

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

39.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.8%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marko Topo 0 – 0 Leonardo Rossi

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Marko Topo #283

Leonardo Rossi #648

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 59

35 First Serve In 33

27 First Serve Won 19

12 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Marko Topo vs Leonardo Rossi — Prediction