ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Trevor Svajda

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

69.75%

Trevor Svajda

USA

30.25%

Average Odds

1.79 / 1.94

Market probability

52.01% / 47.99%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1663 vs 1445), a higher Elo rating (1631 vs 1466) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 58.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1630.6 Elo 1465.8

1662.7 Elo (surface) 1444.7

123 Wins (Challenger) 19

109 Wins (surface) 19

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.962

159 Rank 514

23.2 Age 20.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Trevor Svajda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Trevor Svajda

1st Serve In %

61.5%

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

26.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

55.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

41.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Trevor Svajda

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

65.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

32.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Trevor Svajda

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-15

1. round

Mark Lajal #159

Trevor Svajda #514

5-7 7-6 6-3

5 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 2

112 Service Points 100

53 First Serve In 51

32 First Serve Won 34

36 Second Serve Won 30

5 Break Points Saved 9

10 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Mark Lajal vs Trevor Svajda — Prediction