ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

56.93%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

43.07%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.04

Market probability

69.41% / 30.59%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1679 vs 1607), a higher Elo rating (1650 vs 1602) and a stronger serve (67.8% vs 65.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1650.4 Elo 1601.6

1679.4 Elo (surface) 1606.7

125 Wins (Challenger) 125

111 Wins (surface) 114

10 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 1

1.198 Dominance ratio 1.319

159 Rank 222

23.2 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

61.5%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 2 – 1 Rio Noguchi

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-18

QF

Mark Lajal #159

Rio Noguchi #222

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

77 Service Points 77

46 First Serve In 47

34 First Serve Won 35

16 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.0

Hard Zhangjiagang CH · 2024-08-26

QF

Mark Lajal #247

Rio Noguchi #302

6-4 6-2

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

46 Service Points 60

28 First Serve In 49

25 First Serve Won 31

12 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Chicago CH · 2024-07-22

Q2

Mark Lajal #249

Rio Noguchi #321

6-3 6-2

5 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 0

56 Service Points 49

31 First Serve In 33

26 First Serve Won 20

14 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Granby CH · 2024-07-15

R32

Rio Noguchi #335

Mark Lajal #246

3-6 7-5 6-3

0 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 3

80 Service Points 86

55 First Serve In 53

39 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mark Lajal vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal — Last 10

Rio Noguchi — Last 10