ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

59.79%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Spain

40.21%

Average Odds

1.76 / 1.98

Market probability

52.94% / 47.06%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1696 vs 1586), a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1624) and more wins on hard courts (114 vs 20).

Player Comparison

1679.9 Elo 1623.9

1696.2 Elo (surface) 1585.9

128 Wins (Challenger) 88

114 Wins (surface) 20

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.193 Dominance ratio 1.226

150 Rank 117

23.2 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Pablo Llamas Ruiz

1st Serve In %

61.5%

65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

30.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.08

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 1 Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-22

R16

Mark Lajal #150

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #117

6-2 4-6 7-6

12 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 1

105 Service Points 95

64 First Serve In 64

49 First Serve Won 43

21 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Hard Segovia CH · 2023-07-24

R16

Pablo Llamas Ruiz #184

Mark Lajal #224

6-4 6-3

6 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

53 Service Points 78

32 First Serve In 48

24 First Serve Won 27

10 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 11

7 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mark Lajal vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Prediction