ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

64.18%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

35.82%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.11

Market probability

55.82% / 44.18%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1711 vs 1595), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1712 vs 1595) and a stronger serve (65.5% vs 63.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1710.9 Elo 1595.2

1711.5 Elo (surface) 1594.7

135 Wins (Challenger) 51

121 Wins (surface) 30

12 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.087 Dominance ratio 0.913

152 Rank 149

23.3 Age 20.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

61.5%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Mark Lajal #152

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #149

6-3 6-1

4 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

45 Service Points 52

29 First Serve In 34

26 First Serve Won 18

9 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Mark Lajal vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal — Last 10

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Last 10