ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Mitchell Krueger

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

64.01%

Mitchell Krueger

USA

35.99%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.87

Market probability

67.53% / 32.47%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1663 vs 1555), a higher Elo rating (1631 vs 1596) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 64.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1630.6 Elo 1596.4

1662.7 Elo (surface) 1555.1

123 Wins (Challenger) 224

109 Wins (surface) 173

9 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 1.090

159 Rank 364

23.2 Age 32.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Mitchell Krueger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Mitchell Krueger

1st Serve In %

61.5%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Mitchell Krueger

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 1 – 0 Mitchell Krueger

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Mark Lajal #159

Mitchell Krueger #364

6-2 3-1

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 2

44 Service Points 33

22 First Serve In 20

17 First Serve Won 10

13 Second Serve Won 6

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Little Rock CH · 2023-05-29

R32

Mark Lajal #311

Mitchell Krueger #258

6-2 7-6(3)

6 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 1

68 Service Points 71

44 First Serve In 39

32 First Serve Won 23

13 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mark Lajal vs Mitchell Krueger — Prediction