ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Lucas Poullain

Challenger Hard Mouilleron-Le-Captif challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

72.65%

Lucas Poullain

France

27.35%

Average Odds

1.12 / 4.95

Market probability

81.55% / 18.45%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1828 vs 1692), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1801 vs 1683) and more wins on hard courts (13 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1827.7 Elo 1691.9

1801.4 Elo (surface) 1682.8

144 Wins (Challenger) 71

130 Wins (surface) 61

11 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.039 Dominance ratio 1.017

143 Rank 325

23.4 Age 30.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

38 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Lucas Poullain

1st Serve In %

61.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.48

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.8%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Lucas Poullain

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.2%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 2 – 0 Lucas Poullain

Hard Orleans CH · 2024-09-23

Q2

Mark Lajal #230

Lucas Poullain #404

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4

3 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

92 Service Points 109

66 First Serve In 70

40 First Serve Won 47

13 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cherbourg CH · 2024-02-12

R16

Mark Lajal #201

Lucas Poullain #247

7-6(5) 6-1

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 1

65 Service Points 54

46 First Serve In 34

29 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 6