ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Keegan Rice

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

68.41%

Keegan Rice

Canada

31.59%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.73

Market probability

74.90% / 25.10%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1731 vs 1605), a higher Elo rating (1712 vs 1603) and a stronger serve (67.8% vs 58.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1712.4 Elo 1603.1

1730.9 Elo (surface) 1604.8

132 Wins (Challenger) 8

118 Wins (surface) 8

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.185 Dominance ratio 0.938

189 Rank 831

23.2 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Keegan Rice

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Keegan Rice

1st Serve In %

61.5%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

81.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

7.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Keegan Rice

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Keegan Rice

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-08-01

SF

Mark Lajal #189

Keegan Rice #831

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 5

62 Service Points 47

35 First Serve In 23

15 First Serve Won 21

14 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Mark Lajal vs Keegan Rice — Prediction