ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

63.35%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Argentina

36.65%

Average Odds

1.89 / 1.88

Market probability

49.87% / 50.13%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1747 vs 1546) and more wins on hard courts (119 vs 8).

Player Comparison

1733.4 Elo 1816.7

1747.5 Elo (surface) 1545.5

21 Wins 79

13 Wins (surface) 12

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.935 Dominance ratio 0.977

157 Rank 52

23.3 Age 24.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Juan Manuel Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

61.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

53.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

69.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Juan Manuel Cerundolo #52

Mark Lajal #157

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 53

36 First Serve In 23

26 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

26 Winners 20

21 Unforced Errors 12

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Prediction