ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Evan Zhu

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

77.32%

Evan Zhu

USA

22.68%

Average Odds

1.12 / 5.83

Market probability

83.88% / 16.12%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1682 vs 1481), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1696 vs 1489) and a stronger serve (61.8% vs 54.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1682.0 Elo 1481.4

1695.5 Elo (surface) 1489.2

129 Wins (Challenger) 68

115 Wins (surface) 55

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.081 Dominance ratio 1.019

189 Rank 607

23.2 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Evan Zhu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Evan Zhu

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

60.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Evan Zhu

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

48.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Evan Zhu

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Mark Lajal #189

Evan Zhu #607

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 0

7 Double Faults 0

52 Service Points 54

23 First Serve In 31

17 First Serve Won 17

19 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.8

Mark Lajal vs Evan Zhu — Prediction