ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Darwin Blanch

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

62.09%

Darwin Blanch

USA

37.91%

Average Odds

1.86 / 1.85

Market probability

49.87% / 50.13%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1691 vs 1423), a higher Elo rating (1668 vs 1617) and a stronger return game (35.6% vs 33.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1668.3 Elo 1616.7

1691.0 Elo (surface) 1423.3

127 Wins (Challenger) 29

113 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.165 Dominance ratio 1.059

150 Rank 225

23.2 Age 18.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Darwin Blanch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Darwin Blanch

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Darwin Blanch

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Darwin Blanch

Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · 2026-07-21

1. round

Mark Lajal #150

Darwin Blanch #225

6-4 5-7 6-4

5 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 90

59 First Serve In 47

52 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 27

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.9

Mark Lajal vs Darwin Blanch — Prediction