ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Daniel Masur

Challenger Hard Cassis challenger · SF 11:30

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

81.03%

Daniel Masur

Germany

18.97%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.54

Market probability

79.37% / 20.63%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1825 vs 1607), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1802 vs 1605) and a stronger return game (40.4% vs 37.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1824.7 Elo 1606.8

1802.0 Elo (surface) 1605.0

141 Wins (Challenger) 217

127 Wins (surface) 136

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.039 Dominance ratio 1.034

152 Rank 378

23.3 Age 31.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Daniel Masur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Daniel Masur

1st Serve In %

61.5%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

44.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

43.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Daniel Masur

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

30.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Daniel Masur

Hard Cassis challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Mark Lajal #152

Daniel Masur #378

7-6 7-5

14 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 32

12 Second Serve Won 18

5 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.5

Mark Lajal vs Daniel Masur — Prediction