ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Dalibor Svrcina

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

64.15%

Dalibor Svrcina

Czech Republic

35.85%

Average Odds

1.92 / 1.82

Market probability

48.66% / 51.34%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1726 vs 1504), a stronger serve (64.0% vs 54.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1708 vs 1695).

Player Comparison

1707.5 Elo 1695.1

1726.2 Elo (surface) 1503.8

19 Wins 34

11 Wins (surface) 27

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.933 Dominance ratio 1.088

157 Rank 111

23.2 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Dalibor Svrcina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Dalibor Svrcina

1st Serve In %

61.5%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

43.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Dalibor Svrcina

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

53.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Dalibor Svrcina

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 1. round

Mark Lajal #157

Dalibor Svrcina #111

5-7 6-4 6-3

6 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 5

106 Service Points 85

63 First Serve In 45

34 First Serve Won 23

23 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 3

14 Break Points Faced 11

20 Winners 26

38 Unforced Errors 48

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Mark Lajal vs Dalibor Svrcina — Prediction