ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

29.70%

Bu Yunchaokete

China

70.30%

Average Odds

2.59 / 1.46

Market probability

36.05% / 63.95%

Why This Prediction?

Bu Yunchaokete is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1834 vs 1662), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1744 vs 1691) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1662.1 Elo 1834.5

1691.1 Elo (surface) 1744.2

126 Wins (Challenger) 104

112 Wins (surface) 80

10 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.236 Dominance ratio 0.799

159 Rank 109

23.2 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Bu Yunchaokete

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Bu Yunchaokete

1st Serve In %

61.5%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

79.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

26.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

43.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Bu Yunchaokete

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

40.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

38.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

18.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 2 Bu Yunchaokete

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-19

SF

Mark Lajal #150

Bu Yunchaokete #110

2-6 6-1 7-6

12 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 85

41 First Serve In 48

32 First Serve Won 37

23 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Grass Ilkley challenger · 2026-06-13

QF

Bu Yunchaokete #131

Mark Lajal #154

6-4 6-1

0 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

58 Service Points 49

43 First Serve In 38

29 First Serve Won 32

4 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 1

11 Winners 23

26 Unforced Errors 19

- Average Odds -

Grass Birmingham challenger · 2026-06-05

QF

Bu Yunchaokete #166

Mark Lajal #157

7-5 6-4

10 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 55

39 First Serve In 34

33 First Serve Won 27

14 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 2

29 Winners 17

22 Unforced Errors 19

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete — Prediction