ATP tennis predict — Mark Lajal vs Braden Shick

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Mark Lajal

Estonia

55.07%

Braden Shick

USA

44.93%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.41

Market probability

72.55% / 27.45%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.5% vs 58.9% of service points won), a stronger return game (35.6% vs 33.3% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (116 vs 16).

Player Comparison

1688.5 Elo 1692.2

1702.3 Elo (surface) 1732.8

130 Wins (Challenger) 18

116 Wins (surface) 16

9 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.074 Dominance ratio 0.894

189 Rank 234

23.2 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Braden Shick

1st Serve In %

61.5%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

42.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.5%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.2%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.3%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mark Lajal Braden Shick

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.3%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mark Lajal 0 – 0 Braden Shick

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-30

QF

Mark Lajal #189

Braden Shick #234

6-2 6-2

8 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 52

30 First Serve In 25

25 First Serve Won 13

7 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Mark Lajal vs Braden Shick — Prediction