ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

33.10%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

66.90%

Average Odds

5.19 / 1.14

Market probability

18.01% / 81.99%

Why This Prediction?

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1615 vs 1491), more wins on hard courts (8 vs 0) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1573 vs 1507).

Player Comparison

1490.9 Elo 1615.3

1507.4 Elo (surface) 1573.2

11 Wins (Challenger) 57

9 Wins (surface) 27

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.023 Dominance ratio 1.058

602 Rank 294

24.3 Age 21.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1st Serve In %

—

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Break Points Saved %

—

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 0 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-26

R16

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #294

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #602

6-3 6-3

0 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

70 Service Points 48

52 First Serve In 28

29 First Serve Won 22

7 Second Serve Won 12

6 Break Points Saved 0

10 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.2

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Prediction