ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Mitchell Krueger

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

42.06%

Mitchell Krueger

USA

57.94%

Average Odds

2.70 / 1.42

Market probability

34.47% / 65.53%

Why This Prediction?

Mitchell Krueger is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1588 vs 1449), more wins on hard courts (173 vs 8) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1548 vs 1466).

Player Comparison

1449.3 Elo 1588.1

1465.5 Elo (surface) 1548.0

10 Wins (Challenger) 224

8 Wins (surface) 173

6 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.038 Dominance ratio 1.066

602 Rank 354

24.3 Age 32.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mitchell Krueger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Mitchell Krueger

1st Serve In %

—

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

69.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Mitchell Krueger

Break Points Saved %

—

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 0 Mitchell Krueger

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #602

Mitchell Krueger #354

7-6 7-5

1 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 10

83 Service Points 95

57 First Serve In 51

34 First Serve Won 34

13 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Mitchell Krueger — Prediction