ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

28.87%

Miguel Tobon

Colombia

71.13%

Average Odds

2.33 / 1.56

Market probability

40.10% / 59.90%

Why This Prediction?

Miguel Tobon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1482 vs 1387), more wins on hard courts (3 vs 0) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 56.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1387.4 Elo 1481.8

1414.8 Elo (surface) 1469.6

7 Wins (Challenger) 54

5 Wins (surface) 16

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.897 Dominance ratio 0.920

608 Rank -

24.2 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Miguel Tobon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Miguel Tobon

1st Serve In %

—

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

54.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Miguel Tobon

Break Points Saved %

—

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 0 Miguel Tobon

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-20

1. round

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #608

Miguel Tobon #-

6-7 6-3 7-6

1 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

117 Service Points 110

81 First Serve In 67

52 First Serve Won 41

18 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Miguel Tobon — Prediction