ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Matt Kuhar

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

44.78%

Matt Kuhar

USA

55.22%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.13

Market probability

70.34% / 29.66%

Why This Prediction?

Matt Kuhar is the favorite because he has better recent form (6 wins in his last 15 matches vs 5) and a stronger return game (41.7% vs 40.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1419.8 Elo 1408.3

1433.4 Elo (surface) 1409.9

9 Wins (Challenger) 13

7 Wins (surface) 12

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.956 Dominance ratio 0.976

589 Rank 785

24.3 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Matt Kuhar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Matt Kuhar

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

35.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Matt Kuhar

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

43.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 0 Matt Kuhar

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-24

qualification - round of 16

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #602

Matt Kuhar #778

6-2 7-5

1 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 5

60 Service Points 67

40 First Serve In 36

24 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Matt Kuhar — Prediction