ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Marko Topo

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:10

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

30.27%

Marko Topo

Germany

69.73%

Average Odds

3.57 / 1.26

Market probability

26.09% / 73.91%

Why This Prediction?

Marko Topo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1633 vs 1484), a higher Elo rating (1596 vs 1426) and more wins on hard courts (2 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1425.9 Elo 1595.5

1484.0 Elo (surface) 1633.5

11 Wins (Challenger) 74

9 Wins (surface) 16

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.083 Dominance ratio 1.126

568 Rank 362

24.4 Age 23.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Marko Topo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Marko Topo

1st Serve In %

—

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Marko Topo

Break Points Saved %

—

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez and Marko Topo have never played each other.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Marko Topo — Prediction