ATP tennis predict — Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Spain

35.21%

Keegan Smith

USA

64.79%

Average Odds

4.29 / 1.20

Market probability

21.86% / 78.14%

Why This Prediction?

Keegan Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1571 vs 1428), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1512 vs 1458) and more wins on hard courts (93 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1428.0 Elo 1570.5

1457.6 Elo (surface) 1511.8

8 Wins (Challenger) 103

6 Wins (surface) 93

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.924 Dominance ratio 0.840

608 Rank 209

24.2 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

—

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

69.2%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

58.6%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

—

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.3%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.4%

29.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 0 Keegan Smith

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-22

R16

Keegan Smith #209

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez #608

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 0

55 Service Points 53

37 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 34

5 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Keegan Smith — Prediction