ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Raphael Collignon

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

36.64%

Raphael Collignon

Belgium

63.36%

Average Odds

2.27 / 1.63

Market probability

41.79% / 58.21%

Why This Prediction?

Raphael Collignon is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (68.8% vs 60.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1510) and more wins on hard courts (53 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1783.8 Elo 1800.1

1509.9 Elo (surface) 1593.0

64 Wins 31

12 Wins (surface) 14

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.899 Dominance ratio 1.043

44 Rank 38

25.5 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Raphael Collignon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Raphael Collignon

1st Serve In %

63.9%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

74.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Raphael Collignon

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%

29.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

73.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

51.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 0 – 0 Raphael Collignon

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

1. round

Mariano Navone #44

Raphael Collignon #38

6-3 7-6

1 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 8

63 Service Points 83

44 First Serve In 51

37 First Serve Won 35

10 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 11

3 Break Points Faced 13

24 Winners 18

22 Unforced Errors 40

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Mariano Navone vs Raphael Collignon — Prediction