ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

56.87%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

43.13%

Average Odds

1.87 / 1.90

Market probability

50.40% / 49.60%

Why This Prediction?

Mariano Navone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1954 vs 1912), a stronger serve (66.5% vs 58.3% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.18).

Player Comparison

1954.4 Elo 1912.2

1822.5 Elo (surface) 1831.5

67 Wins 337

15 Wins (surface) 187

7 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.081 Dominance ratio 0.904

47 Rank 65

25.6 Age 35.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

64.3%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

54.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

45.1%

Break Points Converted %

24.4%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 1 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta

Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

R128

Mariano Navone #31

Pablo Carreno Busta #1049

5-7 6-1 6-3 6-0

6 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 5

111 Service Points 128

77 First Serve In 79

50 First Serve Won 42

17 Second Serve Won 16

9 Break Points Saved 11

14 Break Points Faced 22

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mariano Navone vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction