ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 01:15

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

16.51%

Novak Djokovic

Serbia

83.49%

Average Odds

5.43 / 1.15

Market probability

17.48% / 82.52%

Why This Prediction?

Novak Djokovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2082 vs 1503), a higher Elo rating (2017 vs 1764) and more wins on hard courts (754 vs 13).

Player Comparison

1764.2 Elo 2016.9

1502.7 Elo (surface) 2082.3

65 Wins 1202

13 Wins (surface) 754

7 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.925 Dominance ratio 0.835

49 Rank 5

25.5 Age 39.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Novak Djokovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Novak Djokovic

1st Serve In %

63.9%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.05

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Novak Djokovic

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%

25.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 0 – 0 Novak Djokovic

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Mariano Navone #49

Novak Djokovic #5

7-6 5-7 4-6 6-2 6-1

9 Aces 10

8 Double Faults 10

156 Service Points 155

98 First Serve In 86

70 First Serve Won 59

34 Second Serve Won 35

8 Break Points Saved 11

12 Break Points Faced 17

36 Winners 46

34 Unforced Errors 70

5.4 Average Odds 1.1

Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic — Prediction