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Mariano Navone vs Matteo Berrettini — Prediction

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 00:55

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

31.22%

Matteo Berrettini

Italy

68.78%

Average Odds

2.29  /  1.62

Market probability

41.43%  /  58.57%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Berrettini is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1706 vs 1555), a higher Elo rating (1849 vs 1787) and more wins on hard courts (53 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1787.5 Elo 1849.1
1555.4 Elo (surface) 1706.1
66 Wins 241
14 Wins (surface) 116
7 Last 15 form 9
1 Head-to-head wins 3
0.975 Dominance ratio 1.015
49 Rank 43
25.5 Age 30.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Matteo Berrettini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Matteo Berrettini

1st Serve In %

63.9%
65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%
75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%
54.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%
22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%
48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.38
0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%
60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%
75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%
51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%
32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%
46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.05
0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Matteo Berrettini

Break Points Saved %

56.9%
72.7%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%
47.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%
55.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%
37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 1 – 3 Matteo Berrettini

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Mariano Navone #49

Matteo Berrettini #43

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-6
15 Aces 5
6 Double Faults 4
127 Service Points 132
72 First Serve In 93
56 First Serve Won 65
26 Second Serve Won 24
4 Break Points Saved 7
7 Break Points Faced 9
44 Winners 25
77 Unforced Errors 37
2.5 Average Odds 1.5
Hard Montreal · 2026-08-03

1. round

Mariano Navone #44

Matteo Berrettini #40

6-3 6-7 6-3
4 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 2
85 Service Points 125
56 First Serve In 87
39 First Serve Won 58
17 Second Serve Won 22
2 Break Points Saved 11
5 Break Points Faced 12
25 Winners 11
78 Unforced Errors 43
2.5 Average Odds 1.5
Clay Cagliari CH · 2026-04-28

R16

Matteo Berrettini #92

Mariano Navone #45

7-5 6-3
6 Aces 0
1 Double Faults 2
60 Service Points 67
33 First Serve In 54
29 First Serve Won 33
14 Second Serve Won 6
1 Break Points Saved 3
2 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2025-04-07

R64

Matteo Berrettini #34

Mariano Navone #70

6-4 6-4
2 Aces 0
4 Double Faults 2
69 Service Points 66
44 First Serve In 43
29 First Serve Won 24
9 Second Serve Won 9
4 Break Points Saved 6
7 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Marrakech · 2024-04-01

SF

Matteo Berrettini #135

Mariano Navone #60

6-7(4) 6-3 6-2
6 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 1
86 Service Points 107
65 First Serve In 86
50 First Serve Won 53
11 Second Serve Won 8
1 Break Points Saved 7
2 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Mariano Navone — Last 10

L W W L L W L W W L

Matteo Berrettini — Last 10

L W L W L L W W L W