ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Jan Lennard Struff

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · R16

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

71.67%

Jan Lennard Struff

Germany

28.33%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.76

Market probability

65.71% / 34.29%

Why This Prediction?

Mariano Navone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1807 vs 1693), a higher Elo rating (1772 vs 1725) and a stronger return game (41.9% vs 33.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1772.2 Elo 1725.0

1807.1 Elo (surface) 1692.7

61 Wins 328

49 Wins (surface) 117

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.044 Dominance ratio 1.075

47 Rank 41

25.4 Age 36.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jan Lennard Struff

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Jan Lennard Struff

1st Serve In %

63.9%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

76.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

24.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Jan Lennard Struff

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

56.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%

47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 1 – 0 Jan Lennard Struff

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-22

R16

Mariano Navone #47

Jan Lennard Struff #41

6-0 6-3

1 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 41

29 First Serve In 32

12 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 3

5 Break Points Saved 0

11 Break Points Faced 2

10 Winners 18

32 Unforced Errors 12

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2025-08-07

Q1

Mariano Navone #78

Jan Lennard Struff #143

6-7(2) 6-2 6-4

5 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 9

90 Service Points 110

52 First Serve In 52

41 First Serve Won 40

27 Second Serve Won 29

3 Break Points Saved 9

3 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mariano Navone vs Jan Lennard Struff — Prediction