ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

23.36%

Arthur Fils

France

76.64%

Average Odds

3.14 / 1.35

Market probability

30.07% / 69.93%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1839 vs 1517), a higher Elo rating (1835 vs 1795) and more wins on hard courts (27 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1795.4 Elo 1835.0

1516.8 Elo (surface) 1838.8

64 Wins 121

12 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.876 Dominance ratio 0.804

44 Rank 24

25.4 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Arthur Fils

1st Serve In %

63.9%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Arthur Fils

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

47.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 1 – 0 Arthur Fils

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

3. round

Arthur Fils #24

Mariano Navone #44

6-3 6-2

1 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 1

63 Service Points 49

43 First Serve In 32

25 First Serve Won 29

10 Second Serve Won 9

4 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 0

4 Winners 15

32 Unforced Errors 30

1.4 Average Odds 3.1

Clay Prague CH · 2022-08-22

R32

Mariano Navone #330

Arthur Fils #348

6-4 6-1

0 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 4

50 Service Points 55

32 First Serve In 33

20 First Serve Won 17

10 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils — Prediction