ATP tennis predict — Mariano Navone vs Alexandre Muller

ATP Clay Kitzbühel · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mariano Navone

Argentina

74.52%

Alexandre Muller

France

25.48%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.87

Market probability

80.50% / 19.50%

Why This Prediction?

Mariano Navone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1800 vs 1609), a higher Elo rating (1764 vs 1638) and a stronger return game (41.9% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1763.5 Elo 1638.3

1799.9 Elo (surface) 1608.8

60 Wins 90

48 Wins (surface) 40

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.098 Dominance ratio 1.178

47 Rank 133

25.4 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

63.9%

66.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

69.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.7%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.1%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.8%

75.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.9%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.0%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.3%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.13

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mariano Navone Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

28.0%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

50.7%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mariano Navone 0 – 0 Alexandre Muller

Clay Kitzbühel · 2026-07-20

1. round

Mariano Navone #47

Alexandre Muller #133

6-4 6-0

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 50

32 First Serve In 38

14 First Serve Won 28

9 Second Serve Won 6

6 Break Points Saved 3

11 Break Points Faced 4

8 Winners 16

30 Unforced Errors 18

1.2 Average Odds 4.9

Mariano Navone vs Alexandre Muller — Prediction