ATP tennis predict — Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Marcos Giron

USA

46.99%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

53.01%

Average Odds

1.97 / 1.80

Market probability

47.75% / 52.25%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1829.9 Elo 1880.5

1788.7 Elo (surface) 1793.4

197 Wins 148

140 Wins (surface) 41

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 3

1.117 Dominance ratio 0.760

88 Rank 53

33.2 Age 25.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marcos Giron

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–7L · 12.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

62.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

58.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.2%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

22.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.6%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

55.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.8%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marcos Giron 0 – 3 Sebastian Baez

Hard Auckland · 2026-01-12

SF

Sebastian Baez #39

Marcos Giron #60

6-1 6-4

5 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

52 Service Points 80

43 First Serve In 47

30 First Serve Won 29

7 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 11

2 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R64

Sebastian Baez #20

Marcos Giron #45

6-4 5-7 7-6(6)

1 Aces 8

6 Double Faults 2

111 Service Points 105

73 First Serve In 54

53 First Serve Won 39

17 Second Serve Won 29

4 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Madrid Masters · 2023-04-24

R64

Sebastian Baez #31

Marcos Giron #61

3-6 6-3 6-4

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 3

78 Service Points 111

55 First Serve In 77

44 First Serve Won 54

14 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Marcos Giron vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Marcos Giron — Last 10

Sebastian Baez — Last 10