ATP tennis predict — Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 22:30

Predicted probability

Marcos Giron

USA

32.42%

Ignacio Buse

Peru

67.58%

Average Odds

2.22 / 1.66

Market probability

42.78% / 57.22%

Why This Prediction?

Ignacio Buse is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1832 vs 1666), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1725 vs 1639) and a stronger return game (42.3% vs 40.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1666.1 Elo 1831.6

1638.8 Elo (surface) 1724.8

197 Wins 40

140 Wins (surface) 12

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.902

78 Rank 30

33.1 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marcos Giron

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ignacio Buse

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse

1st Serve In %

61.8%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

47.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

51.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Ignacio Buse

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marcos Giron 0 – 1 Ignacio Buse

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Ignacio Buse #30

Marcos Giron #78

3-6 6-3 6-3 6-7 6-1

5 Aces 10

6 Double Faults 5

161 Service Points 151

108 First Serve In 91

68 First Serve Won 69

20 Second Serve Won 26

13 Break Points Saved 5

23 Break Points Faced 10

47 Winners 53

60 Unforced Errors 42

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Grass Queen's Club · 2026-06-16

1. round

Ignacio Buse #35

Marcos Giron #86

3-6 7-5 7-6

2 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

108 Service Points 112

60 First Serve In 73

42 First Serve Won 54

32 Second Serve Won 22

6 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 7

31 Winners 34

32 Unforced Errors 45

3.1 Average Odds 1.4

Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse — Prediction