ATP tennis predict — Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Marcos Giron

USA

64.79%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

35.21%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.71

Market probability

65.46% / 34.54%

Why This Prediction?

Marcos Giron is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1667 vs 1507), a higher Elo rating (1690 vs 1570) and more wins on hard courts (140 vs 8).

Player Comparison

1690.3 Elo 1569.6

1666.8 Elo (surface) 1506.8

197 Wins 24

140 Wins (surface) 8

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.115 Dominance ratio 1.007

81 Rank 125

33.0 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Marcos Giron

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

61.8%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.5%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.7%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Marcos Giron Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

61.0%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.1%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Marcos Giron 0 – 0 Henrique Rocha

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

qualification - 1. round

Henrique Rocha #125

Marcos Giron #81

6-4 7-6

2 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 76

38 First Serve In 52

25 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 13

6 Break Points Saved 6

9 Break Points Faced 8

14 Winners 21

32 Unforced Errors 41

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction